Is Bitcoin Resetting for the Next Move?

Market : Deleveraging Before Direction

• Cleared excessive leverage,
• Reduced forced liquidation risk,
• And helped establish stronger market bases before recoveries.

Bitcoin (BTC): Leverage Down, Structure Improving

• Open interest: -30% since October
• 2025 context: OI had nearly tripled vs. 2021 bull market levels
• Price action: BTC up ~10% YTD despite falling leverage

• Falling OI during price stability or recovery often signals short positions being closed, not aggressive new leverage entering.
• This reduces overhead selling pressure and shifts price support toward spot-driven demand, which is structurally more sustainable.

• If BTC were to lose key support and enter a broader bear phase, open interest could contract further — extend the correction.
• For now, deleveraging looks constructive, not defensive.

What These Signals

• Excess leverage from the 2025 speculative phase has largely been flushed.
• The risk of cascade liquidations is materially lower than it was in Q4.
• Any upside continuation is more likely to be driven by real buying, not leverage expansion.

CoinTR Insight

• Sustainable rallies usually begin after open interest contracts, not when it expands.
• Deleveraging creates conditions where price can move with less resistance once demand returns.

• Trade around resets without being forced out by liquidation-driven volatility,
• Manage positions calmly as leverage exits and structure rebuilds.

Forward-Looking Takeaway

• A ~30% drop in open interest historically aligns with market resets, not trend exhaustion.
• If BTC holds key price supports, this deleveraging phase strengthens the medium-term setup.
• The next upside leg, if it comes, is more likely to be spot-led and durable rather than speculative.